Saturday, April 28, 2012
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
economic forecast
The main economic event in March can be regarded as maintaining the extremely high rates of inflation: in the first three weeks of the month the goods and services in the consumer market grew by 0.4%. As a result, since the beginning of the year inflation amounted to March 21 is 3.6% ( last year at this time, it was 3.1 %). It is important here is not only that inflation over the previous year is higher, but that such a phenomenon is observed at a time when prices in other countries, not only do not grow, but even in some cases fall. Especially to be noted that in March in Japan, the earthquake and tsunami originated trade crisis: the shortage of people in the were forced to stand for hours in long lines, reminiscent of turn of the USSR, but traders and it never occurred to raise prices.
As of early March, when the inflation rate in Russia has reached 3.2% in the 27 EU countries in general, prices have risen by exactly 0%. At the same products in Spain fell by 1.2 %, Italy - 1.4, in Greece - 2.3%. A rapid rise in prices caused a stir except that the countries in the European Union are not included, but included in the Customs Union with Russia in Kazakhstan inflation coincided with the Russian, making the same 3.2%, Belarus ahead of Russia by exactly 1%, showing a 4.2%.
Of course, this does not mean that in European countries it is absolutely stable prices for all types of goods. For example, vegetables in the EU from January to early March went up by 3.7%. But in Russia, vegetable price hike was unspeakably greater and amounted to 18.6%. The same thing happened with fruit: in Europe they rose by 1.9 %, in Russia - 7%. Fish and seafood in Europe rose by 0.4%, while in Russia - by 2.6%.
This is not to say that Russian merchants did not try to attract customers, but simply mechanically raise prices. If sellers do not want the fish ahead of the competition in the struggle for the buyer, on the shelves did not receive the goods to attract the attention of purchasing brands like ' Trout Che Guevara '.
Just everything in Russia have become accustomed to high rates of inflation, and in most cases, manufacturers and retailers believe that competitors will raise prices in line with these high prices. So just what is important from our competitors in this business to keep up. Evolves, so to speak, price competition is the opposite.
Buyers are also accustomed to the constant rise in prices - as used at the same time this growth is constantly complaining, so used, and despite the complaints, rising prices for commodities still fly. Thus, consumers are active participants in inflation: the seller asks for your goods well, from his point of view of price, the buyer agrees to this price.
The Russian authorities, on the other hand, are used to explain the high inflation objective processes, mainly occurring outside of Russia in the abstract world market. They say the world has seen the food crisis - so what do you want? . It is no accident of the EU countries to the greatest extent prices have dropped in Greece - the country is experiencing a definite fiscal crisis.
The authorities in Russia have consistently pointed out that they intend to help the citizens survive under the pressure of inflation. In particular, it was in March, it was decided that future pensions will not increase twice a year, and one, but essentially. And this is explained by the fact that retired state must offset the effects of the inflationary rise in prices.
As a result, pensioners, who are the main complaints in the grocery store to the continuous rise in prices of goods do not cease to complain - but it can buy more goods, thus realizing a contribution to inflation. Then the state, taking into account inflation, pensions will increase again - and the process resumes.
Of course, the increase of pensions can not be too large so that pensioners have become a prominent force in the Russian consumer market. We are talking about their contribution feasible in the game of supply and demand in this market. The main force in the market are, of course, working citizens, who play in this case a dual role.
C on the one hand, these citizens are producing goods and services, which are then sold at higher prices. And when citizens require a salary, the employer may indicate that the company operates, because inflation can withstand a race with competitors that do not work at a loss, and this need to constantly raise prices. At least to compensate for the loss from inflation. Say, this will raise the price - get paid.
On the other hand, those same citizens are consumers of goods and services. After receiving the salary, they go to the store to spend it - and preferably quickly, because tomorrow the price will be higher than today. There, citizens notice that, in comparison with the past prices have risen markedly, complain (but quieter than retirees ), but did buy the goods. There is a cycle of inflation in the nature.
a. What will happen to the ruble?.
The forecast in March, we noted that anti-inflationary purposes in March, the dollar will be cheaper than 29.3 rubles. Forecast completely come true: the month ended with the dollar at 28.43 rubles.
At the same time the Central Bank is clearly suggested that the relatively high exchange rate will actually be anti-inflationary effect, since it does not allow imported goods to the Russian consumer market go up. Also, do not need to print a lot of money for the purchase of petrodollars into Russia to contain the growth of the ruble exchange rate, money supply does not increase too much, people do not be too many newly printed rubles, and they do not rush to buy up all the goods in a row. As a result, inflation in March was still high, but the Central Bank can always say that without the monetary policy rates in the consumer market would have grown even more.
In addition to inflationary concerns in the exchange rate, of course, affect the situation on world markets. In today's ultra-high oil prices would have been strange if abundantly petrodollars coming into Russia cost too expensive. In addition, the dollar is going up in Russia when it becomes more expensive on world markets. Now a dollar price increase is not observed in the world.
As usual, the Central Bank does not forget about the possibility that he might be accused of damaging the competitiveness of Russian enterprises - expensive ruble cheaper imports and makes exports less profitable. However, in the same situation are the central banks of all countries who are trying to artificially influence the rate of national currency. After the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the yen has strengthened greatly, as expected, that Japanese investment banks will immediately transfer the money from foreign currency into the national. The Japanese Central Bank considers that the strengthening of the yen will hurt much national competitiveness, which will be absolutely the wrong time, and stopped using it to strengthen collaboration with the central banks of the G7 currency intervention. After that, once expressed the fear that a weak yen is dangerous, because the raise the price of imported goods that will absolutely not the time, because economic recovery will take many of these products - and, in general, with oil now in Japan is very bad, and the oil Japan imports.
Our prognosis: In the interests of the competitiveness of the dollar will be worth no less £ 28.2.
2. What will happen to prices in Russia?.
A month ago, we pointed out that the decline in inflation does not cancel the inflationary inertia, so that prices rise in March to 0.5 %. The final results of months of inflation is not summed up, but given that the first three weeks of March inflation rate was 0.4%, our prediction can be considered completely accurate.
In the first three weeks of March wheat rose in price the most - by 6.5 % (YTD wheat prices have increased already at 25.3%). According to established tradition for many months continued to go up significantly buckwheat - by 5.5 % (YTD buckwheat inflation was already 29.4%). Eggs from the beginning of the year rose by only 0.7% in March, but it came off of egg prices, they increased by 3.2%.
Earlier this year, except millet and buckwheat, potatoes were the leaders of inflation ( price increased by 1 March at 24.8%) and fresh cabbage ( March 1 went up by 23.7 % already ). The Russian authorities have even expressed concern about this and corrected the situation by facilitating the import of vegetables. With a potato situation has changed radically in March: instead of a noticeable rise in prices was observed reduction in price by 1%. As for the cabbage, it has also become better, but still a rise in prices was observed: cabbage was higher by 2.7%.
In March, the authorities were pleased to note that in the last year and early this significantly increased revenues in the consolidated budget of the money from income tax. Consequently, we can conclude that Russia has successfully overcome the financial crisis and the citizens with the companies more money. Now, a lot depends on whether the citizens themselves share and the company this thesis. If you share, then inflation will not fall: why, if all had more money? .
Our forecast: the citizens especially the money will not save, and inflation in April was 0.4%.
3. What will happen to oil prices?.
In the last forecast, we wrote that the world demand for oil due to high prices will not fall, so the per barrel Brent will give more than $ 105. And so it happened - March 30 a barrel of North Sea Brent gave $ 115 U.S. per barrel WTI $ 104.
Oil Speculators - major investment and pension funds - now have every opportunity to play as a fall of quotations of oil futures, as well as their increasing. Those who want to play for a fall can draw attention to the fact that oil refiners in the U.S., the world's largest nefteimportera now enough. And the exhaustion of these reserves is difficult to expect, because the winter heating season in the United States now ends up as a car season, when all go away on vacation, come only in summer. In general, the second quarter of each year is a period of seasonal decline in demand, and OPEC in connection with this often even took the decision to temporarily reduce production. In addition, President Barack Obama in late March launched an initiative to reduce U.S. oil imports by a third over 10 years in order to ensure energy security. So in the coming years, U.S. demand should not increase and decrease.
Those who wish to play on the rise may draw attention to the fact that the world oil market has lost because of events in Libya's 1.7 million barrels of crude oil and it is unknown whether other OPEC members to fill this lack of. Meanwhile, the global economic recovery after the recession continues and countries will need more oil. Japan's need for additional oil recovery after the tsunami.
Our prediction: a barrel of Brent in April, will provide about $ 110.
4. What will happen to the dollar to the euro?.
We predicted that, in connection with a possible world oil crisis of the euro in March, will not be less than $ 1.36. Forecast has come true - March 30, the euro gave $ 1.41.
In March, there were many events that could very interested in global currency speculators.
The leaders of the eurozone central banks and the U.S. made it clear that they are going for the foreseeable future, still raise interest rates as economic recovery is like a good idea. Then you can use another theory according to which growth should be the exchange rate of the country where higher interest rates. In this case you should buy the currency before raising interest rates, only the propagation of rumors about the possibility of increasing - and was pleased to see how the theory is coming true right before your eyes. Indeed, if we all buy a certain currency, the rate will increase it automatically, even if the interest rate increase will be only rumors.
Speculators have decided that the ECB will raise rates in April, and the Fed will follow them later. This helped the players on the appreciation of the euro. At the same time speculators have decided that the Bank of Japan under the current circumstances, after the tsunami to raise rates certainly will not be - it helped the players to the depreciation of the yen and the euro and the dollar.
Our forecast: Speculators will continue to reflect on the stakes, so that the euro will cost less than $ 1.4.
Sergei Aleksashenko, Director of Macroeconomic Research of the Higher School of Economics:.
a. The ruble will not exceed £ 28-28,2. / $. Due to the high energy prices Russia's budget will again be inflated oil revenues, and the Central Bank will be to save the ruble, gradually increasing its.
2. The April inflation rate as in March, will be about 0.6-0.7 %. Objective reasons for the substantial increase in prices in the coming months, I do not see.
3. Since the beginning of the Libyan developments, oil prices rose seriously, but now they are relatively stable, and can hardly wait for the new jumps. $ 114-115 per barrel - the most probable values for April and early May.
4. Ratio of the euro / dollar in April, will remain within 1,35-1,4 by consistently high oil prices and solid ruble.
Viktor Baranov, president of the Interregional Exchange oil and gas industry:.
a. Because psevdotreny in tandem and play with the Libyan situation will be fluctuations in the ruble, but insignificant level. Literally, plus or minus a few cents, compared with March.
2. Inflation, in my view, be no more than 1 %. Given that Russia has begun pre-election season, prices will artificially constrain. Only the cost of energy will increase.
3. Oil prices will rise by an average of 2-3% compared to March. Given the lost contracts Russian oil companies in Libya, the fuel business will try to recover losses.
4. The dollar will rise, because the Europeans are pulling in a large economic burden due to the war in Libya. Therefore, the euro would be enough unsightly in April.
Vladimir Scherbakov, chairman of the board of directors of the companies ' Avtotor ':.
a. Economy of Russia and the Central Bank is not interested in the growth rate of the ruble, but this month it will grow by about 3-4% to the basket. For 30 rubles. / $ Is not just step over. Will grow up the ruble payments due to resource.
2. Inflation will rise and reach 1.5-1.8 %. In April, oil popret up and come to the Russian market a large number of dollars, but the Central Bank will not allow the rate to jump. Plus, the need for domestic emission due to the planting.
3. The price of oil - only a political issue. For example, Venezuela could cut its own channel. Then the League of Arab States will take advantage of the growth deficit. Each will play his game, and prices will rise because of this.
4. The euro / dollar rate will be adjusted and will 1,3-1,35. In the euro has problems of economic, that are tailored to Portugal and Greece will grow, the events in Japan will lead to a drop in market for European goods.
Elena Abramova, general director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting:.
a. The ruble to the U.S. currency will fluctuate in the range of 27,5-28,5 rubles. / $. In April, you can expect a slight appreciation of the ruble against the basket, due to the seasonal influx of capital and oil prices.
2. The inflation rate is estimated at 0.6-0.7 %. A significant factor may be a seasonal rise in prices increased on foodstuffs. On other markets, inflation is likely to decline slightly.
3. Oil price Brent, estimated at $ 107-112 per barrel. Decline may be due to a possible stabilization in the Middle East. Should the situation deteriorate, the price reached $ 120 a barrel.
4. The interval of the euro / dollar will be 1,37-1,41, which is close to the current level.
Discuss.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Ergonomics of the headset - the key to happiness!?
Bored all the parameter ergonomics, oddly enough, is the key when choosing a. telephone headsets. If you take the headset to their employees that they would be uncomfortable to wear during the day - your hope for the growth of productivity is bound to 100%. Spend 8 hours a day in an uncomfortable headset is dangerous to health.
The most unpleasant thing that is impossible to assess the ergonomics of the headset, wearing it for five minutes. Only after spending 5-6 hours you can understand, would not she say, too much pressure on your ears. And if so, the work in such a headset will be unbearable. Most of the inexpensive, especially computer headsets, it is. Therefore, they can be used in the best houses, clothing for no more than an hour or two.
The second point affects the ergonomics - it is possible to adjust the headband. The heads of all employees are different, and what a great opportunity for adjustments to allow the headset speaker, the better. Alas, the only full-scale tests in 2-3 months will allow you to see if it will get loose headband too fast. And will do to keep the headset on your head after a period of.
If you do not have time to do all these tests, you have to immediately discard from consideration of the entire consumer goods cheaper garniturnoy. Need - professional headsets. Those who use today. call-centers. Headsets with perfectly calibrated ergonomics. Designed for use with 24 /7 ( 24 hours, seven days a week). Yes, they are quite expensive. But they sure will help, not hinder the work of your employees.
It should be noted that a good professional headsets produce only a few manufacturers. In the Russian call-centers is justified solutions are used globally recognized American manufacturer. Plantronics.
Stay in touch.
A. On.
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Incredible medical anomalies
The medical world is full of strange and even shocking stories, which sometimes occur in our daily lives. Here and exotic diseases, and the amazing cases of miraculous escapes from rare ailments, as well as the incredible medical anomalies.
In October 2005, in St. Paul's Hospital in Vancouver, brought 42 -year-old patient who fell asleep at his home in the strange ( kneeling ) position. He complained of pain in the legs, which appeared in his opinion, because of problems with blood vessels. The pressure was increased from him. When the patient took a blood test, the nurse fainted - not from a finger dripping red, and dark green liquid.
Initially, the doctor suggested that the patient has problems with methaemoglobin - a dangerous condition in which the hemoglobin does not react with oxygen. Further analysis of the man revealed that he had problems with sulfgemoglobinom when hydrogen sulfide in the blood reacts with hemosiderin forming sulfgemoglobin, causing the blood gets green.
According to the findings of doctors, this situation could arise due to excessive doses of drugs containing sulfonamides, the patient received from headaches.
Two DNA.
When the 52- year-old teacher from Boston Karen Keegan came to the hospital with her misfortune, she was told: ... The case of modern medicine - a trifling, especially as all three sons of Karen volunteered to become a donor. But it was soon discovered that the two sons of Karen does not fit the profile of its genetic code. Further tests showed that Karen suffers chimerism, a state in which one twin, developing in her womb, ... Their kidneys Karen did not fit! . Karen continued to examine the body to make sure that the boys - her children, and not the result of confusion in the hospital. Similar DNA found in my mother's thyroid gland. It turned out that Karen Keegan body contains two different types of DNA. Phenomenal!.
SLEEPING BEAUTY.
Natalie Adler, a young and beautiful woman from Melbourne was the victim of a rare disease that makes her almost blind for three days a week. Her beautiful eyes are closed, and open them again, it can only be in 3 days.
It started one Sunday morning, when Natalie was 11 years old. She picked up somewhere palatal fistula infection and, because of what once woke up with sore eyes. From that day it started, and regular sleep. At first my eyes were closed without any order, and then the ...
Natalie showed hundreds of doctors, but nobody could help her. Then the drug was nevertheless found - for 2 years it was treated with Botox fashion, which allowed her to see five days of the six. But now Natalie Botox does not work. Doctors are looking for new effective means for the ...
Pens in the skull.
German woman, Margaret Wegner for many years suffered from headaches and nosebleeds. In August 2007 she had to undergo surgery. Because of what such drastic measures? . Then the medical technology was not as advanced, so doctors hesitated for an operation, fearing harm to the patient. The operation was successful - the pen was removed from the skull of a woman. Margaret Wegner feels great, headaches, it is no longer pursuing.
Funny Girl.
At the 12 -year-old Chinese woman Xue Ping, without a smile is impossible to watch because she laughs all the time. Makes it a permanent and without a break for lunch, even in my dreams. This cute little girl at 8 months of colds caught a fever, a complication which has become a constant laughter. Because of this, she stopped to talk to two years of age. That is, Xue able to talk, but does so with a laugh, so that they understand it only the family and friends. Doctors say that this was the complication in the frontal lobe of the brain girl. Doctors say the problem is not solved.
Break PIPE.
Yi Cao - 57 -year-old worker from China. Doctors fainted when he was taken to hospital. Straight from his eyes stuck out a water pipe with a crane! . There was a fire, people were fighting with the flames, and then decided to pull out of the wall water pipe with a crane. And pulled out. So much so that it pierced the skull of poor Cao.
Her body has lodged two people - the so-called conjoined twins.
How many doctors or conjured over Cao, could not think of anything. Then, a hard worker he set to work: acting under the strict supervision of a doctor, he took the pipe out of his skull. Curiously, Cao eyes almost did not suffer. He sat for a week in the hospital, and then went to work.
HEART OF STONE.
In a hospital in Atlanta (USA) 54 -year-old husband Jim MakKletchli took him in his own car. The man suffered a severe heart attack. It happened all night. While the doctor on duty fighting for the patient's life, he had almost gone to the hereafter. The fact that the heart of Jim stopped a record one hundred times per night. Doctor out of steam. Only during the first hour of resuscitation of the patient's heart sank, and the nurse declared clinically dead 50 times! . And in the patient's chest nurse said second-degree burn. In one night, the patient experienced a clinical one hundred deaths, and in the morning wanted to go to work!.
Lakshmi TATM - a girl, born in India in 2005. Her birth was accompanied by severe trauma, because her body has lodged two people - the so-called conjoined twins. So TATM had two pairs of arms and two pairs of legs. The body of her twin sister is deprived of the head and attached to her body, to be exact - to her pelvis. We had two spinal TATM, four kidneys, two stomachs and two sternal. Fortunately, doctors were able to operate it, and now the girl is the same as all healthy babies.
Miraculous DIVING.
Mark Chenoweth was born into the world with horrible disease - spina bifida, which did not allow him to move. And until 1998, Marik moved to a wheelchair. Once he got the idea to go diving. The doctors were against it, but annoying, Mark went to the island of Minorca, where he intended to go diving. There he was with great difficulty managed to scrounge for rent and scuba instructor. He achieved his goal, and sank to a depth of about 15 meters. When Mark returned to the shore, then suddenly realized that he could walk alone! . Then Mark began to sink into the sea every day, doing scuba diving with. And after a while found that the deeper he dives, the longer it goes on their own. And now, Mark rarely uses his gurney. Doctors hypothesize miraculous recovery: breathing gas in scuba, oxygen-rich, positively affects the nerve cells in the spinal cord mark, making them come alive.
Viktor Zharov.
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Kobita: What you need to start a business
To open a business, you must:.
- Examine the market over the sphere of its activity. It is likely that the offer is too rich, and the demand is not so great. As far as I know, even in the individual case furniture much competition. Although there is room for improvement: three cabinet and a table we did for almost a week, but really there for two days of work. To study the surface enough to walk around town, reading newspapers with ads, talk with friends. Usually, all limited to focus groups with relatives and friends, but it's not quite true - these people always want only good for you and therefore can be subjective in both directions. A simple test, tell me what you want to do business, embedding a penny and can be combined with previous work. And then let us know that it will be necessary to sell the apartment to start work. And if at first everyone will be happy for you, then after the second start vying to discourage - though the situation has not changed.
- Decide how organizational form you will be dealing. I personally love the company, but you are more suitable for IP. Probably just about the only negative PI today in small businesses, crooked grin of large customers that you are in your niche almost and not fall. In services, there is a different attitude. In consideration of IP easier, simpler taxation, easier observed.
- Decide how you will open the IP. I have never in my life did he not open. Always enjoyed the services of lawyers. Pay two - 3tys. rubles, but a heap of problems and avoiding loss of time. In fact, you are giving money to the lawyer, and after 3-7 days of getting the documents to the firm or entrepreneur, plus a contract with the bank to the account.
- If you UTII - bank account and you can not open, but it is better to open, then quickly because it does not open, then if you suddenly need. The logic of the costs of servicing the current account: money for the opening (from 500 to 6,000 rubles, depending on the bank), the monthly fee - but only if there was a movement on the account. Some banks even charge for every coin payment system. But all this is in the bank fees. I would recommend working with large banks, but there's everyone has their own tastes. Although remembered as the people rushed in bankruptcy BaltKredoBanka and Network Oil Bank, do not. Government guarantees for money on the accounts of enterprises does not. You will then sue the bank in arbitration.
- If you open an account, connect directly online bank. And do not take no checkbooks - tariffs for settlement service almost anywhere wild. Expose all on any of your debit card. Wages, dividends, accountability. Translation during the day, no queues at banks, any errors in filling out checks, no commissions on the observed. 10 years since work.
- Now we have to solve a problem with your accountant. I worked without an accountant just three months before the first report. Then I decided, or work, or accounting. And the chosen work. Tariffs for small companies ranging from 2 to 10 thousand. The fewer entries, the lower the rate. Accountants in outsourcing - complete. But I would recommend for a large number of entries to work with firms. Although this is a subjective opinion, but here at least there is someone to bring a claim. Simple freelancer just say ' I'm tired ' and all that you can stay in the middle of the report without accounting. So taking things one freelancer, we shuffled a report and flew to a fine of PF.
- You can not hire an accountant to postoyanku, and pay on a quarterly basis for reporting. But then the reports will take themselves. Instead, save yourself a lot of money. This would only be recommended to those who have little or no entries. To me, saving 2- 3tys. / month. in their dealings with the tax - a more expensive.
- As I said, IE can do almost anything not to give up. But here we must inquire with lawyers. We honestly all of renting. And for all the company, and IP. And on the USN, and UTII. Quarterly.
- When you register a company, you will be asked to choose a form of taxation. Do USN 6% and do not suffer. There is still UTII ( vmenenka, you do not apply), STS 15% ( this is more for the services sector ), the total system ( for those who work with VAT - God forbid you from it).
- After registration of the firm and collect all the other bills in one daddy. If you really want to hang in a frame BIN, it is better to make a copy of. And the originals in the folder. Often, the original need for something, and once and find the FIG. So Daddy here - need. You bet I did at least one certified copy of a notary. Let the lies, there is no request, and the money is small. But then it will save several days applying for something.
Actually in this legal stuff is over. Routine is that every quarter you bring the paper to the parishes of the accountant / costs. And she / he delivers reports to the tax, PF, and Social Insurance. And once a month, you pay taxes on wages (if you pay it). Once a quarter, list the tax USN. For IP, you can pay tax on the wages once a year, if there is no traffic on the current account.
Yes, there is such a clever trick. Even if officially on the FE is nothing less than a year, you still must pay the state represented by the PF and the Social Security coin. Since 2010. - 12tys. rubles.
Now about the business. Many fled immediately withdraw a large office, give cars advertising and so on. In fact, you should not hysteria. Your most important supplier of customers - your reputation. Over the years, your regular customers will generate 60-70% of your revenue. And the rest - one way or another relate to the recommended or ever heard of your magic hands. So quietly and systematically work with the ad copy from your competitors. Let's announcement in his hands and Fair, make business cards and scatter the familiar. And the smile. For example, a client for the client and build up your database. Could more detail, but so much written, and all very individual here.
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Tuesday, April 17, 2012
The laws of drama
The modern movement in the world of innovation, start-ups and other things developing in certain scenarios. Are there any trends that developed around them fight to the laws of drama. There are a contributing force, is opposing, there is intrigue, plot, etc.. The plot begins when a particular line of the final act and released a couple of key players. So, what line ( trends) are in the modern world of startups?.
Stir in the conventional offline business online in some of its variations. This is all kinds of IT services and sites that add new properties to business as usual. For example, the selection of services Realtors, teaching English and other.
Changing the relationship, when the previously non- interlaced lines ( curves ). For example, when the manufacturer's Marvel Comics main source of income were not comic book buyers, and the film company that filmed his scenes.
Personalization. Due to the fact that now a man with a mobile device or PC connected to the Internet becomes more accessible to the client, in this construct all sorts of new things. It is a lot of start-ups based on the concept of online person-.
globalization. Many start-ups and ideas are based on the ability of technology to geographically distributed businesses and people closer together. On the opportunity to work with the world, regardless of geographic location.
Mobilization and geo targeting. Well, you've heard all the screaming that goes into all mobile phones. This is the same personalization, only deeper, taking into account the physical location of man - Online.
socialization. Technology relationship, based on the trends outlined above, are ubiquitous method of synergy.
The centralization of decentralized technologies. This is a very interesting phenomenon. On the one hand, there are processes of decentralization (all integrated with each other, cloud computing, etc.), on the other hand, the effect of centralizing everything around him is a matter of major players such as Apple, Google, Microsoft, is constantly increasing.
Increases the level of quality requirements. The winners are often those who come up with an idea, and those who implement it beautifully. This steady growth. Even if you are targeting the lower segment and individuals, they already have a lot of expectations for quality design, usability, and chips.
Design becomes a separate concept and trend. Take that, like, come up with a new design ( shape, appearance, taste) and it will be a new product. This is again a consequence of the growth of quality requirements.
reshuffle. No more than the standard value chains. The supplier -manufacturer -distributor. This is a game designer, which can now be arbitrarily rearranged players to create new and then again to change the order.
Interpretations. New interpretations of old, the addition of some properties of the products of others, always a source to create a business.
innovation. Actually revolutionary breakthroughs, which is not much, but they are, which are created in a laboratory whose. This mainly relates to the field of biotechnology, and energy.
This list is not meant to be a complete coverage of all scenarios, but the idea, I think it is clear. Razmnozhte it in the industry and you will get some kind of DNA chain scenarios where the same lines are the main line for himself and for the other side. Trends are complementary to each other, intersecting at different branches, the players, the old strategies. The two main conclusions:.
The old classification should be thrown out and look at the market both at the scene. Unrelated to the player you can become your supplier or customer, you can create a customer, where they were not, and so on. Market start-ups - is the designer of the trends and markets.
The old strategy, based on digital analysis of the market will no longer work. Weave, and changes occur more frequently than cools the paper on which is printed once the analysis.
Monday, April 16, 2012
Russians for the most part do not consider Russia as one of the leading powers in the world
Research Company. ... in the course of the next nationwide survey asked Russians what place Russia, in their opinion, is the world's achievements and how it can be proud of. The survey involved 1,500 residents of Russian cities with a population of 100,000 people or more, of the 8 federal districts, aged 18-60 years and older. Sample is representative of the urban population in Russia.
As the results of the survey, only 26 % of Russians believe that Russia as a state among the three world leaders. Another 11 % believe the country is in the world ranking position of 4.5, while 18 % believe that Russia is worthy of at least enter the top ten countries in the world. The most optimistic about the situation in Russia in the world of female respondents aged 18-24 years, workers and employees, people with low and middle income.
At the same time quite a large proportion of respondents ( 45%) believe that the country is not included in the top ten, of which 10 % said that Russia is not included even in a hundred of the leading states. A higher proportion of such responses observed among men, respondents aged 35-44 years with higher education and high social status. On average, according to the Russians, Russia is the world's 26 th position.
Figure 1. Q: What do you think, what in the world is Russia as a state?. |
In assessing the position of Russia in the world of visible and regional differences. At the highest place in the world ranking (21) put Russia 's Southern Federal District residents. Were also patriotic citizens of the Volga and Far East. The lowest position (30) was awarded the country's Central Federal District respondents.
Figure 2. Q: What do you think, what in the world is Russia as a state?. The distribution by federal districts. |
Most respondents believe that Russia can be proud of. The main reason for pride Russians call the tradition of the people, as well as achievements in the aerospace, military technology, science and sport. Successes in the economy, the construction of a free society and democracy, Russians are proud of, to a lesser extent. However, one in five respondents ( 18%) responded that the citizens of Russia have nothing to be proud of.
Figure 3. Q: How do you think is or what the latest developments can be proud of the citizens of Russia?. |
source.
Yahoo! will fire thousands of employees
Yahoo! Inc. plans to cut thousands of employees. The reason for this decision was the drop in stock price Yahoo!.
Not yet determined the exact number of employees who are dismissed from the 14000th state companies. Approximately may be laid off thousands of the order of 1.5-2.5.
The final decision should be taken at a meeting of company executives to take stock of the fourth quarter of 2007. Which take place on 29 January 2008. Company executives think about what direction it is possible to cut.
In most of Yahoo! comments on this issue has not yet been given, the New York Times.
Jerry Yang (Jerry Yang), who became CEO in June 2007. , Promised to return the position of leader Yahoo! internet services. However, since then the company's shares have fallen by 25%. At the same time shares of its main competitor - Google - rose by 15%. In addition, the increasing popularity of social networks such as MySpace and Facebook, also contributes to the popularity Yahoo!.
Sunday, April 15, 2012
its a book
No, not so. OWN BOOK. Previously, it was fashionable nadrachivat to work, now all hard at drochat released book bloggers.
And if you think about it, for example, Andrew Mukhacheva reads per month 20,000 people. For the year accumulates about 100 unique visitors 150tysyach. How does it compare with copies of his upcoming book of a thousand copies. Or even let three thousand. Incidentally, I counted in the print edition of the print shop. somewhere 150tys. rubles is obtained. When the mass is even smaller orders. In theory, if so required OWN BOOK, you can easily do samizdat. I even dealt with the problem zapihivaniya in bookstores for a customer. Guys just throws from 50 to 100% of the top, and the calculation on the fact of implementation on a monthly basis. No tricks, just a long wait for the money.
But I think that is not so much the fact of inhaling the ink from the pages, as published by the recognition of your art suitable for printing on paper. Although, as for me, too, the fact is quite controversial, given the number of govnoliteratury on the shelves of bookstores.
I have nothing against the desire to be a writer. But I can not grasp why the microscopic circulation so easy to cross out all the merits of man online. The peak of your career? . And flipped through the book Tinkova more than poring. But the blogs they read. At Tinkova even signed - some dude actually zhzhot.
I have published articles in journals since the University. In my portfolio, and an article in the Hacker, and articles in business magazines in the 5- 15tys. copies. circulation, and newspaper articles. But written on the knee for fun ' Confessions zadroty ' read by more people than all of my articles, interviews, essays, and analyst for 15 years.
Sometimes I think that many writers, reforged in the bloggers, so taste the delights of online, in writing a blog regularly and hearty ( read Kaganov, Akunin or earliest Grishkovtsa ), and write books just because they pay for, and in another . For online you see the reaction of the reader, you feel it. After publishing a book, you can not see anything except dry sales figures. Therefore, and wondered why successful authors in recognition of tiny online Offline. Well the film was removed. or series. And, ugh, and only. Write and sell. but online. Faster, more fun and more money directly. Again, nature protects.
By the way, this year, sales of online books on Amazon for the first time exceeded sales of paper books. Following the last book fair circulation of paper books in Russia have fallen three times. The young author is extremely difficult to rely on the circulation of more than 3 thousand copies. Unless, of course, he suddenly did not write the new Twilight, Dark Tower, Ground, or at least Metro 2033.
Friday, April 6, 2012
MOLEKULOMOBIL: NANOLITRAZHKA -wheel drive
... Only one molecule - but four-wheel drive and no harmful emissions into the atmosphere.
In order to deliver cargo from point A to point B, you will need to do work. For this we use the mechanical energy of spinning wheels. To do this, we include the engine, which converts the energy stored in chemical bonds of hydrocarbons ( or the energy of an electric current ) into mechanical. So what happens in nature, for which there are so- called motor proteins that convert the ... Chemists and biochemists have many times appealed to these ... And one of the undoubted success in this direction - the recent work of Swiss researchers led by Karl-Heinz Ernst (Karl-Heinz Ernst) and their colleagues from the group of Professor Ben Feringa Netherlands (Ben Feringa) - created by them, ... The device consists of four independent rotating ... In fact, it is the smallest in the world of electric vehicle (compared to the authors, ... There are, however, the ... There is no reverse gear is not provided. In principle, everything is organized quite simply, some form of the molecule is placed on a conductive copper plate, and brought near to it the finest needle tunneling microscope. It is energized about 500 mV, and the electrons begin to flow from the needle on the molecule, and through it - on a substrate. This vyzyvet structural changes in all four ... The ... After the necessary calculations, scientists conducted a similar experiment in practice. Their ... The authors believe that this - only the first steps of the device, showing the possibility of designing molecules that convert electrical energy into mechanical work. Now they will be engaged in the creation of such a molecule, which could be activated by more convenient sources of energy - say, a laser beam. |
Stinks like unto the wild beast!
The Europeans at all times considered Russia barbarous country. And we are often expressed about it in the same spirit. On these days I will not say, but we can confidently say that until the 19th century Russia, despite all the shortcomings, was the most civilized of European nations.
Many wistfully imagine old Europe with noble knights (ha ha ), ready to feats in the name of beautiful women ( ho-ho ), with beautiful palaces and gallant musketeers ( well, well ), with magnificent royal receptions and fragrant gardens of Versailles. Many people think: why I was not born (born ) in those beautiful days? .
Believe me - you are very lucky.
Until the 19th century in Europe prevailed horrifying savagery. Forget about what you see in the movies and fantasy novels. True - it is much less. hmm. fragrance. And this applies not only to the dark Middle Ages. In the chant of the Renaissance and Renaissance fundamentally nothing has changed.
By the way, sadly, but almost all of the negative aspects of life in the Christian church of Europe is responsible. Catholic in the first place. Now I understand Prince Myshkin, who said that ' Catholicism - is worse than atheism '.
The Ancient World built a hygienic procedures in one of my greatest pleasure is enough to recall the famous Roman baths. Before the victory of Christianity in one Rome had more than a thousand baths. Christians are the first thing came to power, close all baths.
By the washing of the body then folk treated suspiciously nudity - a sin, and the cold - you can catch a cold. Hot tub is unreal - worth much firewood is very expensive, the main consumer - the Holy Inquisition - and it is difficult enough, and sometimes had to replace the burning of a favorite quartering, and later - the wheel.
Spain's Queen Isabella of Castile (the end of the XV century. ) Confessed that in his whole life washed only twice - at birth and wedding day. The daughter of one of the French kings died of lice. Pope Clement V dies of dysentery, and Pope Clement VII painfully dying from mange (as King Philip II). The Duke of Norfolk refused to wash out of religious beliefs. His body was covered with an abscess. Then the servants waited until his lordship drunk dead drunk, and hardly washed.
Russian ambassadors at the court of Louis XIV, wrote that their majesty ... Themselves as Russian throughout Europe considered deviants because they went to the bath once a month - often ugly.
If the XV - XVI centuries rich citizens were washed at least once every six months, in XVII - XVIII centuries, they stopped to take a bath. However, sometimes had to use it - but only for medicinal purposes. By the procedure carefully prepared and placed before the enema. French King Louis XIV bathed only twice in his life - and that on the advice of doctors. Washing led the monarch in such horror that he had sworn never ever to take water treatments.
In those troubled times, body care was considered a sin. Christian preachers are called to walk literally in rags, and never bathe, because that way you can achieve spiritual purification. Wash could not yet, because I could wash away the holy water, which touched at baptism. As a result, people do not wash over the years or did not know any water at all. The dirt and lice were considered specific signs of holiness. Monks and nuns served the rest of the Christians an example of serving the Lord.
On the clean look of disgust. Lice were called ... The saints, both male and female, usually boasted of the fact that water never touched their feet, except when they had to wade the river.
People are so unaccustomed to water treatment that Dr. F. E. Biltsu in a popular textbook of medicine late XIX (!) Century had to persuade people to wash. ... Fear of this unfounded - Bilts wrote in his book ... ... Doctor few believed.
Perfume - important European invention - came into being precisely as a reaction to the lack of baths. The initial task of the famous French perfume was simple - to mask the terrible stench of unwashed bodies years of sharp and persistent perfume.
Sun King, waking up one morning in a bad mood (and this was his normal condition in the morning, because, as you know, Louis XIV was suffering from insomnia due to bugs ), the court ordered all the perfume. It is an edict of Louis XIV, in which he said that when visiting the court should not feel sorry for strong spirits, and their flavor drowned out the stench from the bodies and clothes.
Initially, these ... Ladies European Middle Ages, knowledge of the exciting action of the natural body odor, smeared her juices as perfume, skin behind the ears and the neck to draw the attention of the desired object.
With the advent of Christianity, future generations of Europeans have forgotten about the toilets flush and a half thousand years, his face turned to night vases. The role of forgotten sewage perform grooves on the streets, where the streams flowed stinking mud. Forgotten about the benefits of civilization of ancient people celebrated wherever they need now. For example, on the grand staircase of the palace or castle. The French royal court periodically moved from castle to castle, because the old is literally nothing to breathe. Chamber pots under the beds there were days and nights.
After the French King Louis IX ( the thirteenth century. ) Was poured shit out of the window, the people of Paris were allowed to remove the waste through the window, only three times previously shouted: ...
Originally nod was intended to just remove the stinking crap hat away from the sensitive nose ladies.
In the Louvre, the palace of French kings, there was no toilet. Emptied in the yard, on the stairs, on balconies. At the ...
The same happened in Versailles, for example, during Louis XIV, in which the life of the well- known for the memoirs of the Duke de Saint Simon. Ladies of the palace of Versailles, in the middle of a conversation ( and sometimes even during the Mass in the chapel or cathedral ), stood up and relaxed way, in the corner, celebrating the small ( and not) need.
Sun King, like all other kings, allowed the court to use as toilets and any other corners of the Versailles castle. The walls of castles were equipped with heavy curtains, made in the corridors of deaf niches. But not it be easier to equip some toilets in the yard or just run around the park? . diarrhea. Ruthless, implacable, able to be caught off guard anyone, anywhere. With adequate food as a medieval diarrhea has been a permanent. The same reason can be traced in the fashion of those years on the men's pants, trousers, consisting of one vertical ribbons in several layers. Paris fashion for big wide skirt, obviously caused by the same factors. Although the skirts were also used for another purpose - to hide beneath the dog, which was designed to protect the beautiful ladies of fleas.
Did not have sewer medieval cities in Europe but had ramparts and the moat filled with water. It is the role of ... The walls were dropped into the ditch shit. In France, a heap of crap outside the city walls grew to such a height that the wall had to build on, as happened in the same Paris - a bunch of grown so much that shit was waddle back, and it seemed dangerous - what if the enemy has penetrated into the city, climbing the wall .
The streets were buried in mud and shit so that the thaw there was no way for them to pass. It was then, according to the extant chronicles, in many German cities, there were stilts, ...
Here's how, according to European archaeologists, this French knight looked at the turn of the XIV-XV centuries: the average growth of the medieval ... Unshaven and unwashed face of this ... Under the helmet of a knight in dirty matted hair of an aristocrat, and in the folds of his clothing in a variety of swarming lice and fleas.
Knight mouth smelled so strongly that modern women would be a terrible ordeal, not only to kiss him, but even to stand next to (alas, the teeth then no cleaning ). A medieval knights ate everything, drank it all sour beer and eating garlic - to disinfect.
In addition, during the next days on the campaign was a knight encased in armor, which he for all his desire could not remove without assistance. The procedure for putting on and taking off the armor of the time took about an hour, sometimes longer. Of course, all your need... celebrated a noble knight in armor right.
Some historians have been wondering why the soldiers Sallah al-Din's so easy to find Christian camps. The answer came very quickly - the smell.
If in the early Middle Ages in Europe, one of the main food was acorns, which are eaten not only commoners, but also know that later (in those rare years when there was no hunger) table been more diverse. Trendy and expensive spices were used not only to demonstrate the wealth, they also blocked the odor exuded meat and other products.
In Spain, women in the Middle Ages, so as not infested with lice, the hair is often rubbed with garlic.
To look pale, languid, ladies drank vinegar. Dogs, except for work by living bloholovkami, another way to beautiful women collaborated: In the Middle Ages, dog urine bleached hair.
Syphilis XVII -XVIII centuries, became a trendsetter. Gezer wrote that because of syphilis disappear every kind of vegetation on the head and face. So gentlemen, to show the ladies that they are very safe and does not suffer from this, began to grow enormously long hair and a mustache. Well, those who for some reason this did not work, come up with wigs, which, if sufficiently large number of syphilitics in the higher strata of society quickly came into vogue in Europe and North America. Socratic sages also ceased to be bald in high esteem to this day.
Due to the destruction of Christians cats bred rats spread the plague throughout Europe flea, why half of Europe died. Spontaneously, a new and much needed in those circumstances the profession Pied Piper. The power of these people in rats did not explain this except the devil, and therefore the Church and the Inquisition at every opportunity, dealt with the Pied Piper, thus contributing to the further extinction of his flock from famine and plague.
Methods of dealing with fleas were passive, such as sticks, chesalochki. Know the insects in their struggles - during lunch of Louis XIV at Versailles and the Louvre there is a special page for catching fleas King. Wealthy ladies, not to raise ... So there was a silk underwear, silk to the fleas and lice do not stick.
Lovers troubadours were collected off the fleas and transplanted to the lady, so that the blood was mixed in a flea.
The beds, which are sharpened on the frame legs, surrounded by a low grille and always with a canopy in the Middle Ages, becoming important. Such widespread canopies were very utilitarian purpose - to bugs and other insects with a nice ceiling is not poured.
It is believed that the mahogany furniture has become so popular because it was not to be seen bugs.
To feed a louse, as well as bugs, it was considered a ... The followers of St. Thomas, even the least dedicated, were ready to extol his dirt and lice, which he wore on his. Search for lice on each other (just like a monkey - ethological roots there ) - meant to give its location.
Medieval lice even actively participated in politics - in Gurdenburge (Sweden ) ordinary louse (Pediculus) has been an active participant in the election of the Mayor. Candidates for high office could be in that time only men with bushy beards. Elections took place as follows. Candidates for mayor sat around the table and laid on him their beards. Then inject a designated person at the center of the table louse. Elected mayor is the one in whose beard crept insect.
Neglect of hygiene cost Europe dearly: in the XIV century, the plague (...
Medical techniques to help at the time were primitive and brutal. Especially in surgery. For example, in order to amputate the limb, as the ' anesthetic ' was used a heavy mallet, ' Mallet ', which is a blow to the head led to a loss of consciousness, the patient, to other unpredictable consequences. The wounds burned with hot iron, or poured boiling water or boiling tar. Lucky for those who have just hemorrhoids. In the Middle Ages he was treated by cauterization with a hot iron. That means - get the fire rod in the ass - and free. healthy.
Syphilis is usually treated with mercury, which, by itself, lead to favorable poledstviyam could not.
In addition to enemas and mercury basic universal method, which treated all in a row, was bleeding. Diseases considered to be afflicted, and subject to the expulsion of the devil - ... At the root of the bloody superstitions were monks - ... Blood is allowed to all - for treatment as a means of combating sexual attraction, and for no reason at all - on the calendar. ... The main problem was the most flawed logic of such a treatment - if the improvement in the patient did not occur, then the output was only one - let the blood is too low. And let more and more, until the patient from loss of blood did not die. Bleeding as a favorite method of treatment of all diseases, was blown away, probably lives no less than the plague.
It was in medieval Europe and Surgery. Even if the surgeon has learned to cut quickly - and for this they sought, bearing in mind the Hippocratic, ... In ancient Egypt, attempts have been made already in pain V-III millennium BC. e. Anesthesia in Ancient Greece and Rome, ancient China and India, was carried out using infusions mandrake, belladonna, opium, etc. n. , In the fifteenth and thirteenth centuries BC. e. for this purpose was first used alcohol. But in Christian Europe had forgotten about all this.
Widely distributed in the Middle Ages drugs from corpses and bones crushed. Garmann also leads recipe for the ...
Deliberate disregard for the death and contempt for earthly life was manifested in the phenomenon of fashion in the human skull. Historian Ruth Weg, was amazed to this custom, widespread in Europe in the 18th century:.
' It is hard to imagine that a human skull was once the subject of fashion. Abnormal fashion was born in Paris in 1751. Ladies of the skull installed on the dressing table, decorated it with colored ribbons, placed into a lighted candle, and at times immersed in reverent contemplation '. But there is nothing particularly surprising here - in relation to such human remains deep-rooted. Christian millennium fostered the cult of relics. It is known that the early Christians lived in the catacombs, surrounded by corpses.
For the pagan culture that was unacceptable. Evnapy of Sardis in the IV century, described the desecration of Christian pagan temple of Serapis, ... collect the bones and skulls of people convicted of crimes and executed by a court, give them as gods and presenting themselves before them ... This cult of the dead bodies, as well as the cult of the Eucharist, the Church has ensured that people in Europe in the 17th century, firmly believed that the powder worn skulls and knuckles are very useful for health. From the burnt bones of happy spouses or lovers, passionate love potion prepared the excitatory.
The phrase ... But if you look at the infamous lampshades never succeed because of their absence, the prototype of the ... Books bound in human skin, in the libraries rather. Books or parchment, wrapped in human skin, appeared in the Middle Ages, when it became widely practiced tanning of human skin (and the preservation of other body parts ). These books have not survived, although there are some historical reports about the Bible XIII- th century and the text of Decretals ( Catholic canon law ) written on human skin.
Among the other bound in human skin documents - a copy of the Human Rights and several copies of the French Constitution of 1793.
The Grand Inquisitor Tomas de Torquemada in Spain (1420-1498), widely famous for its sacred struggle with heretics, became a kind of ... Torquemada with a truly Christian benevolence burned at the stake 10,220 persons. Much less is known more - much human material ... Burning alive emotionally hides from us far greater number of ... For example, in the same Torquemada a link to the galleys were sentenced 97,371 people. It was in the galleys were these heretics atone his guilt before the Lord. Thomas Torquemada was the confessor Infanta Isabella of Castile ( the one who was proud of the fact that washed two times in my life ).
With respect to ... The rest of the heretics have always had a choice: a quick death in the fire (still fast - the burning of wood in damp Christians will come up later), or galleys. Link to the galley was in fact the same death, just lazy - the majority of those sentenced to penal servitude did not survive even to the end of the second year of imprisonment.
Monday, April 2, 2012
Google Chrome 17 is now stable!
The browser has finally been updated to version 17! . At first glance, well, then - time will tell.
Sunday, April 1, 2012
Reminder for my visitors
I am writing something so quickly that many did not have time to read. Therefore I remind you that I care about.
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