economic forecast

The main economic event in March can be regarded as maintaining the extremely high rates of inflation: in the first three weeks of the month the goods and services in the consumer market grew by 0.4%. As a result, since the beginning of the year inflation amounted to March 21 is 3.6% ( last year at this time, it was 3.1 %). It is important here is not only that inflation over the previous year is higher, but that such a phenomenon is observed at a time when prices in other countries, not only do not grow, but even in some cases fall. Especially to be noted that in March in Japan, the earthquake and tsunami originated trade crisis: the shortage of people in the were forced to stand for hours in long lines, reminiscent of turn of the USSR, but traders and it never occurred to raise prices.

As of early March, when the inflation rate in Russia has reached 3.2% in the 27 EU countries in general, prices have risen by exactly 0%. At the same products in Spain fell by 1.2 %, Italy - 1.4, in Greece - 2.3%. A rapid rise in prices caused a stir except that the countries in the European Union are not included, but included in the Customs Union with Russia in Kazakhstan inflation coincided with the Russian, making the same 3.2%, Belarus ahead of Russia by exactly 1%, showing a 4.2%.

Of course, this does not mean that in European countries it is absolutely stable prices for all types of goods. For example, vegetables in the EU from January to early March went up by 3.7%. But in Russia, vegetable price hike was unspeakably greater and amounted to 18.6%. The same thing happened with fruit: in Europe they rose by 1.9 %, in Russia - 7%. Fish and seafood in Europe rose by 0.4%, while in Russia - by 2.6%.

This is not to say that Russian merchants did not try to attract customers, but simply mechanically raise prices. If sellers do not want the fish ahead of the competition in the struggle for the buyer, on the shelves did not receive the goods to attract the attention of purchasing brands like ' Trout Che Guevara '.

Just everything in Russia have become accustomed to high rates of inflation, and in most cases, manufacturers and retailers believe that competitors will raise prices in line with these high prices. So just what is important from our competitors in this business to keep up. Evolves, so to speak, price competition is the opposite.

Buyers are also accustomed to the constant rise in prices - as used at the same time this growth is constantly complaining, so used, and despite the complaints, rising prices for commodities still fly. Thus, consumers are active participants in inflation: the seller asks for your goods well, from his point of view of price, the buyer agrees to this price.

The Russian authorities, on the other hand, are used to explain the high inflation objective processes, mainly occurring outside of Russia in the abstract world market. They say the world has seen the food crisis - so what do you want? . It is no accident of the EU countries to the greatest extent prices have dropped in Greece - the country is experiencing a definite fiscal crisis.

The authorities in Russia have consistently pointed out that they intend to help the citizens survive under the pressure of inflation. In particular, it was in March, it was decided that future pensions will not increase twice a year, and one, but essentially. And this is explained by the fact that retired state must offset the effects of the inflationary rise in prices.

As a result, pensioners, who are the main complaints in the grocery store to the continuous rise in prices of goods do not cease to complain - but it can buy more goods, thus realizing a contribution to inflation. Then the state, taking into account inflation, pensions will increase again - and the process resumes.

Of course, the increase of pensions can not be too large so that pensioners have become a prominent force in the Russian consumer market. We are talking about their contribution feasible in the game of supply and demand in this market. The main force in the market are, of course, working citizens, who play in this case a dual role.

C on the one hand, these citizens are producing goods and services, which are then sold at higher prices. And when citizens require a salary, the employer may indicate that the company operates, because inflation can withstand a race with competitors that do not work at a loss, and this need to constantly raise prices. At least to compensate for the loss from inflation. Say, this will raise the price - get paid.

On the other hand, those same citizens are consumers of goods and services. After receiving the salary, they go to the store to spend it - and preferably quickly, because tomorrow the price will be higher than today. There, citizens notice that, in comparison with the past prices have risen markedly, complain (but quieter than retirees ), but did buy the goods. There is a cycle of inflation in the nature.

a. What will happen to the ruble?.


The forecast in March, we noted that anti-inflationary purposes in March, the dollar will be cheaper than 29.3 rubles. Forecast completely come true: the month ended with the dollar at 28.43 rubles.

At the same time the Central Bank is clearly suggested that the relatively high exchange rate will actually be anti-inflationary effect, since it does not allow imported goods to the Russian consumer market go up. Also, do not need to print a lot of money for the purchase of petrodollars into Russia to contain the growth of the ruble exchange rate, money supply does not increase too much, people do not be too many newly printed rubles, and they do not rush to buy up all the goods in a row. As a result, inflation in March was still high, but the Central Bank can always say that without the monetary policy rates in the consumer market would have grown even more.

In addition to inflationary concerns in the exchange rate, of course, affect the situation on world markets. In today's ultra-high oil prices would have been strange if abundantly petrodollars coming into Russia cost too expensive. In addition, the dollar is going up in Russia when it becomes more expensive on world markets. Now a dollar price increase is not observed in the world.

As usual, the Central Bank does not forget about the possibility that he might be accused of damaging the competitiveness of Russian enterprises - expensive ruble cheaper imports and makes exports less profitable. However, in the same situation are the central banks of all countries who are trying to artificially influence the rate of national currency. After the March earthquake and tsunami in Japan, the yen has strengthened greatly, as expected, that Japanese investment banks will immediately transfer the money from foreign currency into the national. The Japanese Central Bank considers that the strengthening of the yen will hurt much national competitiveness, which will be absolutely the wrong time, and stopped using it to strengthen collaboration with the central banks of the G7 currency intervention. After that, once expressed the fear that a weak yen is dangerous, because the raise the price of imported goods that will absolutely not the time, because economic recovery will take many of these products - and, in general, with oil now in Japan is very bad, and the oil Japan imports.
Our prognosis: In the interests of the competitiveness of the dollar will be worth no less £ 28.2.



2. What will happen to prices in Russia?.


A month ago, we pointed out that the decline in inflation does not cancel the inflationary inertia, so that prices rise in March to 0.5 %. The final results of months of inflation is not summed up, but given that the first three weeks of March inflation rate was 0.4%, our prediction can be considered completely accurate.

In the first three weeks of March wheat rose in price the most - by 6.5 % (YTD wheat prices have increased already at 25.3%). According to established tradition for many months continued to go up significantly buckwheat - by 5.5 % (YTD buckwheat inflation was already 29.4%). Eggs from the beginning of the year rose by only 0.7% in March, but it came off of egg prices, they increased by 3.2%.

Earlier this year, except millet and buckwheat, potatoes were the leaders of inflation ( price increased by 1 March at 24.8%) and fresh cabbage ( March 1 went up by 23.7 % already ). The Russian authorities have even expressed concern about this and corrected the situation by facilitating the import of vegetables. With a potato situation has changed radically in March: instead of a noticeable rise in prices was observed reduction in price by 1%. As for the cabbage, it has also become better, but still a rise in prices was observed: cabbage was higher by 2.7%.

In March, the authorities were pleased to note that in the last year and early this significantly increased revenues in the consolidated budget of the money from income tax. Consequently, we can conclude that Russia has successfully overcome the financial crisis and the citizens with the companies more money. Now, a lot depends on whether the citizens themselves share and the company this thesis. If you share, then inflation will not fall: why, if all had more money? .
Our forecast: the citizens especially the money will not save, and inflation in April was 0.4%.




3. What will happen to oil prices?.


In the last forecast, we wrote that the world demand for oil due to high prices will not fall, so the per barrel Brent will give more than $ 105. And so it happened - March 30 a barrel of North Sea Brent gave $ 115 U.S. per barrel WTI $ 104.

Oil Speculators - major investment and pension funds - now have every opportunity to play as a fall of quotations of oil futures, as well as their increasing. Those who want to play for a fall can draw attention to the fact that oil refiners in the U.S., the world's largest nefteimportera now enough. And the exhaustion of these reserves is difficult to expect, because the winter heating season in the United States now ends up as a car season, when all go away on vacation, come only in summer. In general, the second quarter of each year is a period of seasonal decline in demand, and OPEC in connection with this often even took the decision to temporarily reduce production. In addition, President Barack Obama in late March launched an initiative to reduce U.S. oil imports by a third over 10 years in order to ensure energy security. So in the coming years, U.S. demand should not increase and decrease.

Those who wish to play on the rise may draw attention to the fact that the world oil market has lost because of events in Libya's 1.7 million barrels of crude oil and it is unknown whether other OPEC members to fill this lack of. Meanwhile, the global economic recovery after the recession continues and countries will need more oil. Japan's need for additional oil recovery after the tsunami.
Our prediction: a barrel of Brent in April, will provide about $ 110.




4. What will happen to the dollar to the euro?.


We predicted that, in connection with a possible world oil crisis of the euro in March, will not be less than $ 1.36. Forecast has come true - March 30, the euro gave $ 1.41.

In March, there were many events that could very interested in global currency speculators.

The leaders of the eurozone central banks and the U.S. made ​​it clear that they are going for the foreseeable future, still raise interest rates as economic recovery is like a good idea. Then you can use another theory according to which growth should be the exchange rate of the country where higher interest rates. In this case you should buy the currency before raising interest rates, only the propagation of rumors about the possibility of increasing - and was pleased to see how the theory is coming true right before your eyes. Indeed, if we all buy a certain currency, the rate will increase it automatically, even if the interest rate increase will be only rumors.

Speculators have decided that the ECB will raise rates in April, and the Fed will follow them later. This helped the players on the appreciation of the euro. At the same time speculators have decided that the Bank of Japan under the current circumstances, after the tsunami to raise rates certainly will not be - it helped the players to the depreciation of the yen and the euro and the dollar.
Our forecast: Speculators will continue to reflect on the stakes, so that the euro will cost less than $ 1.4.






Sergei Aleksashenko, Director of Macroeconomic Research of the Higher School of Economics:.

a. The ruble will not exceed £ 28-28,2. / $. Due to the high energy prices Russia's budget will again be inflated oil revenues, and the Central Bank will be to save the ruble, gradually increasing its.

2. The April inflation rate as in March, will be about 0.6-0.7 %. Objective reasons for the substantial increase in prices in the coming months, I do not see.

3. Since the beginning of the Libyan developments, oil prices rose seriously, but now they are relatively stable, and can hardly wait for the new jumps. $ 114-115 per barrel - the most probable values ​​for April and early May.

4. Ratio of the euro / dollar in April, will remain within 1,35-1,4 by consistently high oil prices and solid ruble.

Viktor Baranov, president of the Interregional Exchange oil and gas industry:.

a. Because psevdotreny in tandem and play with the Libyan situation will be fluctuations in the ruble, but insignificant level. Literally, plus or minus a few cents, compared with March.

2. Inflation, in my view, be no more than 1 %. Given that Russia has begun pre-election season, prices will artificially constrain. Only the cost of energy will increase.

3. Oil prices will rise by an average of 2-3% compared to March. Given the lost contracts Russian oil companies in Libya, the fuel business will try to recover losses.

4. The dollar will rise, because the Europeans are pulling in a large economic burden due to the war in Libya. Therefore, the euro would be enough unsightly in April.

Vladimir Scherbakov, chairman of the board of directors of the companies ' Avtotor ':.

a. Economy of Russia and the Central Bank is not interested in the growth rate of the ruble, but this month it will grow by about 3-4% to the basket. For 30 rubles. / $ Is not just step over. Will grow up the ruble payments due to resource.

2. Inflation will rise and reach 1.5-1.8 %. In April, oil popret up and come to the Russian market a large number of dollars, but the Central Bank will not allow the rate to jump. Plus, the need for domestic emission due to the planting.

3. The price of oil - only a political issue. For example, Venezuela could cut its own channel. Then the League of Arab States will take advantage of the growth deficit. Each will play his game, and prices will rise because of this.

4. The euro / dollar rate will be adjusted and will 1,3-1,35. In the euro has problems of economic, that are tailored to Portugal and Greece will grow, the events in Japan will lead to a drop in market for European goods.

Elena Abramova, general director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting:.

a. The ruble to the U.S. currency will fluctuate in the range of 27,5-28,5 rubles. / $. In April, you can expect a slight appreciation of the ruble against the basket, due to the seasonal influx of capital and oil prices.

2. The inflation rate is estimated at 0.6-0.7 %. A significant factor may be a seasonal rise in prices increased on foodstuffs. On other markets, inflation is likely to decline slightly.

3. Oil price Brent, estimated at $ 107-112 per barrel. Decline may be due to a possible stabilization in the Middle East. Should the situation deteriorate, the price reached $ 120 a barrel.

4. The interval of the euro / dollar will be 1,37-1,41, which is close to the current level.




Discuss.